United States Medical Licensing Examination step 2 scores do not predict American Board of Neurological Surgery scores: A single-institution experience

The neurosurgery residency match is becoming increasingly competitive, with numerous factors being considered as part of the application. We aim to determine whether USMLE Step 2 scores were a significant predictor of neurosurgery board performance.

Residents who entered a neurological surgery residency program at a single academic institution during 2000-2017 provided scores for all ABNS attempts, USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 scores. Data were deidentified and analyzed for correlation and regression. Pearson's correlation coefficients were determined.

USMLE Step 1, Step 2, and maximum ABNS scores were all normally distributed. Step 1 and Step 2 scores were less variable than ABNS scores. USMLE Step 2 and residents' best ABNS written examination scores were not correlated (Pearson Correlation of 0.228 with a 2-tailed significance of 0.272). No outliers were present. When comparing USMLE Step 2 scores with year in residency at which residents scored over 300 on the ABNS written examination, Pearson correlation was -0.500 (p = .015). A simple linear regression was calculated using Step 2 scores to predict the passing year of ABNS written examination (F(1,14) = 6.984, p = .015, R² = 0.25).

Although other studies have found correlations between USMLE Step 2 scores and performance before graduating medical school and during residency for other specialties, this is the first study comparing USMLE Step 2 scores with the ABNS written examination scores of neurosurgical residents. Our data showed that USMLE Step 2 was not a reliable predictor of ABNS written examination scores.