Spatial scale affects novel and disappeared climate change projections in Alaska

Area of Science:

• Paleoclimatology
• Ecology
• Climate Science

Background:

• Understanding past climate shifts is crucial for predicting species' ecological niche dynamics.
• Climate data resolution influences ecological impact predictions of climate change.
• Spatial variation in climate necessitates careful consideration of data resolution.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the impact of climate data resolution on novel and disappeared climates.
• To model the distribution and fractional area of novel and disappeared climates across different resolutions.
• To evaluate how downscaling and upsampling climate data affect ecological predictions.

Main Methods:

• Downscaled Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and modern climate data to 60-m resolution for Alaska.
• Upsampled climate data to coarser resolutions (60 m to 12 km) for 10 climate variables.
• Modeled distributions of novel and disappeared climates at various resolutions.

Main Results:

• Novel and disappeared climates were predominantly found in southern Alaska.
• Climate resolution influenced the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates.
• Coarser climate data generally increased the fractional area of novel and disappeared climates.

Conclusions:

• Coarse climate data can lead to overestimation or underestimation of climate change impacts on ecosystems.
• Downscaling climate data is essential for accurate ecological assessments.
• Environmental variability and climate extremes are reduced with coarser data, affecting predictions.