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[External validation of the ORACLE bleeding risk score using the database of the RECORD 3 registry]

L O Minushkina1, A D Erlikh2, V A Brazhnik3

  • 1Central State Medical Academy, President Affairs Department RF.

Kardiologiia
|December 19, 2019
PubMed

Insights

The ORACUL score effectively predicts bleeding risk in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients during hospitalization and post-discharge. This validation confirms its utility for managing bleeding complications in ACS.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Clinical Risk Assessment
  • Medical Informatics

Background:

  • Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients face significant bleeding risks, necessitating accurate predictive tools.
  • Existing risk assessment scales may require validation in diverse patient populations.
  • The ORACUL score was developed to assess bleeding risk in ACS patients.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To externally validate the domestic ORACUL (ОРАКУЛ) score for bleeding risk assessment.
  • To evaluate the ORACUL score's performance in an independent cohort of ACS patients.

Main Methods:

  • External validation using the RECORD-3 observational study database.
  • Inclusion of 2370 patients hospitalized for ACS across 47 centers in Russia.
  • Analysis of in-hospital and 6-month post-discharge bleeding events.

Main Results:

  • The ORACUL score demonstrated good diagnostic value for in-hospital bleeding risk (C-statistic 0.691).
  • For 6-month post-discharge bleeding risk, the C-statistic was 0.628.
  • The score showed sufficient sensitivity and specificity for predicting bleeding events in both periods.

Conclusions:

  • External validation confirms the ORACUL score's statistical power.
  • The ORACUL score is suitable for predicting bleeding risk during hospitalization and after discharge in ACS patients.
Abstract

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