Optimizing the Chinese Electricity Mix for CO2 Emission Reduction: An Input-Output Linear Programming Model with
Jidong Kang1, Tsan Sheng Ng1,2, Bin Su2
1Department of Industrial & Systems Engineering and Management , National University of Singapore , 117575 , Singapore.
Environmental Science & Technology
|December 20, 2019
Summary
A new model shows shifting China's electricity generation to low-carbon sources can cut economy-wide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 20% and peak emissions by 2030. This strategy considers both operational and capital-related CO2 impacts.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Energy Economics
- Operations Research
Background:
- China's economy-wide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions present a significant environmental challenge.
- The electricity generation mix plays a crucial role in overall emissions.
- Existing models may not fully capture capital-related CO2 emissions from electricity technologies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop an input-output linear programming (IO-LP) model for cost-effective CO2 reduction in China.
- To analyze the impact of shifting the electricity generation mix on economy-wide CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2050.
- To endogenize fixed capital formation of electricity technologies (FCFE) to account for capital-related CO2 emissions.
Main Methods:
- Development of an input-output linear programming (IO-LP) model.
- Endogenization of fixed capital formation of electricity technologies (FCFE).
- Scenario analysis comparing a shifted electricity mix to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario.
Main Results:
- Low-carbon electricity sources (hydro, nuclear, wind, solar) have lower operational CO2 emissions but higher capital-related CO2 emissions than coal.
- A shift in the electricity generation mix can reduce accumulated economy-wide CO2 emissions by 20% by 2050.
- China's CO2 emissions could peak by 2030 under the proposed scenario.
- Operational emissions reductions contribute 21.4% to accumulated emission decrease, while infrastructure expansion adds 1.4%.
Conclusions:
- The developed IO-LP model effectively identifies optimal electricity technology choices considering direct and indirect CO2 emissions.
- Shifting to low-carbon electricity is a viable strategy for significant CO2 emission reductions in China.
- Policy interventions focusing on the electricity sector can accelerate China's carbon peaking goals.
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