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Increased prevalence of multiple sclerosis and clusters of different disease risk in Northern Italy

Roberto Bergamaschi1, Maria Cristina Monti2, Leonardo Trivelli2

  • 1Multiple Sclerosis Center, IRCCS Mondino Foundation, via Mondino 2, 27100, Pavia, Italy.

Neurological Sciences : Official Journal of the Italian Neurological Society and of the Italian Society of Clinical Neurophysiology
|December 25, 2019
PubMed
Abstract

Insights

Multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence in Pavia, Italy, increased significantly from 2000 to 2016, with higher risk clusters identified in northern municipalities. This highlights geographic variations in MS risk for further investigation.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Neurology
  • Spatial Analysis

Background:

  • Multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence varies geographically.
  • Microscopic geographic variations and spatial clusters of MS are underexplored.
  • Understanding spatial MS prevalence is crucial for etiological research.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Estimate 2016 MS prevalence in Pavia, Northern Italy.
  • Describe geographical variations in MS risk across small areas.
  • Compare 2016 MS risk with the year 2000.

Main Methods:

  • Ecological study design.
  • Bayesian models used for area-specific MS relative risk estimation.
  • Posterior marginal distribution of relative risk differences analyzed for risk variation.

Main Results:

  • Overall 2016 MS prevalence was 169.4 per 100,000 inhabitants.
  • Bayesian mapping revealed spatial clusters of high and low MS prevalence.
  • Northern municipalities showed increased MS risk compared to the year 2000.

Conclusions:

  • Pavia province is identified as a high-risk area for MS.
  • MS risk has increased in Pavia province since 2000.
  • Highlighted areas warrant further investigation into environmental and genetic MS risk factors.
Keywords:
BayesianDisease mappingGeographical distributionMultiple sclerosisPrevalenceRisk of multiple sclerosis

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