Models to Predict Future Permanent Tooth Caries Incidence in Children Using Primary Teeth Caries Experience

Area of Science:

• Pediatric Dentistry
• Dental Public Health
• Caries Risk Assessment

Background:

• Accurate prediction of permanent tooth caries (DMFS) is crucial for early intervention in children.
• Existing caries risk assessment models may not be optimally applicable to all pediatric populations.
• African American children may have unique caries development patterns requiring specific predictive tools.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate two models for predicting permanent tooth caries incidence (ΔDMFS) in African American children.
• Model 1 utilized primary tooth caries experience (dmfs) at age six.
• Model 2 utilized untreated primary tooth caries (ds) at age six.

Main Methods:

• Prospective cohort study data from African American children aged six to 12 years.
• Two predictive models were developed using baseline primary dentition caries status (dmfs or ds).
• Model performance was assessed using sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV).

Main Results:

• Model 1 (dmfs predictor) demonstrated high sensitivity (81.8–100%) and NPV (90.0–100%), but lower specificity (35.6–42.6%) and PPV (5.8–38.1%).
• Model 2 (ds predictor) showed moderate sensitivity (33.3–55.6%), specificity (62.7–72.7%), PPV (3.4–45.5%), and NPV (80.0–95.9%).
• Both models are clinically applicable, time-efficient, and potentially valuable for caries risk assessment.

Conclusions:

• Predictive models using early primary tooth caries indicators (dmfs or ds) can assess permanent tooth caries incidence.
• The models offer a practical approach to caries risk assessment in pediatric populations, particularly African American children.
• Further validation is recommended to integrate these models into routine dental practice for improved caries prevention strategies.