Predictive Accuracy of the ACS-NSQIP Surgical Risk Calculator for Pathologic Humerus Fracture Fixation

Pathologic fractures are associated with poor outcomes. This article investigated the prevalence of underestimation of risk by the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator (SRC) in patients with pathologic humerus fractures. Two hundred seven (207) patients were identified and analyzed using the ACS-NSQIP SRC. Predicted and actual outcomes were then compared. Average hospitalization was 6 ± 10 days. Ten patients (5%) had a mild adverse event (AE), and 15 (7%) had a serious AE. The ACS-NSQIP SRC underestimated hospitalizations (p < 0.001), but not serious AE (p = 0.601), mild AE (p = 0.948), cardiac complications (p = 0.817), pneumonia (p = 0.713), surgical site infection (p = 0.692), urinary tract infection (p = 0.286), venous thromboembolism (p = 0.554), acute renal failure (p = 0.191), discharge to acute care facility (p = 0.865), readmission (p = 1.0), reoperation (0.956) or mortality (p = 0.872). Negative outcomes were limited in this cohort, and the SRC demonstrated acceptable accuracy. Future investigation of the calculator in other orthopaedic populations is warranted. (Journal of Surgical Orthopaedic Advances 28(4):250-256, 2019).