Have inequalities in all-cause and cause-specific child mortality between countries declined across the world?

Comparing the distribution of all cause or cause-specific child mortality in countries by income and its progress over time has not been rigorously monitored, and hence remains unknown. We therefore aimed to analyze child mortality disparities between countries with respect to income level and progression for the period 2000-2015, and further explored the convergence of unequal income levels across the globe.

Four types of measures were used to assess the degree of inequality across countries: difference and ratio of child mortality rate, the concentration index, and the Erreygers index. To assess the longitudinal trend of unequal child mortality rate by wealth ranking, hierarchical mixed effect analysis was used to examine any significant changes in the slope of under-5 child mortality rate by GDP per capita between 2000 and 2015.

All four measures reveal significant inequalities across the countries by income level. Compared with children in the least deprived socioeconomic quintile, the mortality rate for children in the most deprived socioeconomic quintile was nearly 20.7 times higher (95% Confidence Interval: 20.5-20.8) in 2000, and 12.2 times (95% CI: 12.1-12.3) higher in 2015. Globally, the relative and absolute inequality of child mortality between the first and fifth quintiles have declined over time in all diseases, but was more pronounced for infectious diseases (pneumonia, diarrhea, measles, and meningitis). In 2000, post-neonatal children in the first quintile had 105.3 times (95% CI: 100.8-110.0) and 216.3 times (95% CI: 202.5-231.2) higher risks of pneumonia- and diarrhea-specific child mortality than children in the fifth quintile. In 2015, the corresponding rate ratios had decreased to 59.3 (95% CI: 56.5-62.1) and 101.9 (95% CI: 94.3-110.0) times. However, compared with non-communicable disease, infectious diseases still show a far more severe disparity between income quintile. Mixed effect analysis demonstrates the convergence of under-5 mortality in 194 countries across income levels.

Grand convergence in child mortality, particularly in post neonatal children, suggests that the global community has witnessed success to some extent in controlling infectious diseases. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess worldwide inequalities in cause-specific child mortality and its time trend by wealth.