A Genetic Risk Score for the Estimation of Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery

Sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) are the most frequent bariatric surgery procedures worldwide. In this prospective study, we examined the association of a genetic risk score (GRS) with loss of excess weight after bariatric surgery.

A total of forty-seven morbidly obese Greek patients who underwent SG (81%) or RYGB were recruited, followed up for 2 years and genotyped. Weight loss after surgery was reported as the percentage of excess weight that was lost (%EWL) at 12 and 24 months after surgery. A GRS was constructed based on previously BMI- and WHR-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were found significantly correlated with weight loss after bariatric surgery in our population. The level of post-surgery %EWL after 12 and 24 months was estimated through two multiple linear regression models that considered the effects of relevant genetic risk variants.

The first proposed model suggested that the predictor variables of GRS, age, and BMI had a significant effect on %EWL12m. GRS was significantly associated with %EWL12m, indicating a 4.618% decrease of %EWL12m per score unit. The second model indicated a positive correlation between %EWL24m and %EWL12m, suggesting that while post-surgery weight loss increased during the first 12 months, an increase was expected in the next 12 months as well. GRS was also significantly associated with %EWL24m, indicating approximately 3% decrease of %EWL24m per score unit.

GRS can be used in the future together with other preoperative parameters in order to predict the outcome of bariatric surgery.