Mathematical model of zika virus dynamics with vector control and sensitivity analysis

Area of Science:

• Mathematical modeling
• Epidemiology
• Public health

Background:

• Zika virus poses a significant public health threat, transmitted via mosquitoes and human sexual contact.
• Understanding transmission dynamics is crucial for effective control strategies.
• Previous models often overlook combined transmission routes or interventions like awareness and vector control.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and analyze a deterministic Zika model integrating vector-borne and sexual transmission.
• To evaluate the impact of human awareness and vector control on Zika virus spread.
• To identify key parameters influencing Zika transmission dynamics.

Main Methods:

• Formulation of a deterministic mathematical model for Zika transmission.
• Analysis of model equilibrium points (disease-free and endemic).
• Stability analysis using the basic reproduction number (R0) and sensitivity analysis.

Main Results:

• The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when R0 < 1.
• Endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable when R0 > 1.
• Backward bifurcation observed, indicating potential for sustained transmission even with R0 < 1 under certain conditions.
• Model validation using Zika outbreak data from Colombia (2016).
• Sensitivity analysis identified mosquito biting rate, mosquito recruitment, transmission probability, awareness rate, and human recovery rate as critical parameters.

Conclusions:

• Human awareness and vector control are vital for managing Zika virus.
• Targeting sensitive parameters can effectively curb Zika transmission.
• The model provides a framework for assessing interventions against Zika.