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A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management.

Pablo García-Díaz1, Thomas A A Prowse2, Dean P Anderson1

  • 1Manaaki Whenua - Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand.

Conservation Science and Practice
|January 10, 2020
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Summary

Quantitative models aid conservation by assessing problems, understanding systems, and evaluating interventions. Following 10 recommendations ensures effective model development and use in conservation management.

Keywords:
applied conservationecological modelspredictionprojectionsimulation modelstatistical modeluncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Conservation Biology
  • Quantitative Ecology

Background:

  • Quantitative models are vital for conservation decision-making.
  • Applied modeling is increasingly used to solve conservation challenges.
  • Clear guidelines are needed to enhance model impact and acceptance by practitioners.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To define the key roles of quantitative models in conservation management.
  • To provide 10 recommendations for facilitating the acceptance and effective use of these models.
  • To integrate recommendations into established model construction phases.

Main Methods:

  • Identifying three primary roles for quantitative models: problem assessment, system dynamics insights, and intervention evaluation.
  • Developing 10 recommendations for model development and evaluation.
  • Structuring recommendations within the four phases of model construction: design, specification, evaluation, and inference.

Main Results:

  • Quantitative models serve critical roles in assessing conservation problems, understanding complex social-ecological systems, and evaluating interventions.
  • Ten recommendations are proposed to guide the development, evaluation, and acceptance of models in conservation.
  • Recommendations are organized across model design, specification, evaluation, and inference phases.

Conclusions:

  • Effective conservation management relies on mutual understanding between managers and modelers regarding the role of quantitative models.
  • Collaborative development of fit-for-purpose models fosters trust and appropriate utilization.
  • Understanding key drivers of uncertainty is crucial for reliable model application in conservation.