Northern Hemisphere Stationary Waves in a Changing Climate

Stationary waves are planetary-scale longitudinal variations in the time-averaged atmospheric circulation. Here, we consider the projected response of Northern Hemisphere stationary waves to climate change in winter and summer. We discuss how the response varies across different metrics, identify robust responses, and review proposed mechanisms.

Climate models project shifts in the prevailing wind patterns, with corresponding impacts on regional precipitation, temperature, and extreme events. Recent work has improved our understanding of the links between stationary waves and regional climate and identified robust stationary wave responses to climate change, which include an increased zonal lengthscale in winter, a poleward shift of the wintertime circulation over the Pacific, a weakening of monsoonal circulations, and an overall weakening of stationary wave circulations, particularly their divergent component and quasi-stationary disturbances.

Numerous factors influence Northern Hemisphere stationary waves, and mechanistic theories exist for only a few aspects of the stationary wave response to climate change. Idealized studies have proven useful for understanding the climate responses of particular atmospheric circulation features and should be a continued focus of future research.