Changing trends in thyroid cancer incidence in Canada: A histologic examination, 1992 to 2016

Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of thyroid cancer (TC) have increased in many parts of the world, primarily because of increased papillary TC detection. While rapid increases in TC incidence have also been reported in Canada, an analysis of incidence and survival by histologic subtype has been lacking. Moreover, recent data points in Canada suggest that the era of rapid annual increases may have ended.

Data are from the Canadian Cancer Registry, the Canadian Vital Statistics-Death Database and an analytic file linking the two. Annual percent changes (APCs) in incidence and mortality rates are estimated using Joinpoint regression. Net survival (NS) is derived using the Pohar Perme estimator.

Among females, TC ASIRs decreased by 3.0% annually from 2012 to 2016, following years of rapid growth. Among males, a long period of rapid increase ended in 2012 with no subsequent decline. For both sexes the overall incidence trend was driven by changes over time in papillary TC and incidence trends in non-papillary TC varied significantly. From 1992 to 2016, TC mortality rates were stable among females and increased slightly among males (APC = 1.2). Five-year NS was higher among papillary cases (99%) than among non-papillary cases (80%) and among females (99%) than among males (94%). Overall, five-year NS increased by 2.1 percentage points from the period from 1992 to 1996 to the period from 2010 to 2014.

The results of this study confirm the central role of papillary TC cases in TC incidence and survival trends in Canada. Given recent changes in trend and TC management guidelines, projected increases in TC rates after 2016 could be re-examined.