Projected estimates of cancer in Canada in 2026

Cancer is the leading cause of death and has major health and economic impacts on people in Canada. We sought to provide updated estimates of cancer incidence and mortality to highlight progress and areas of need for planning and awareness.

We estimated cases, deaths, and age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and mortality rates (ASMR) in 2026, standardized to the 2021 Canadian standard population, by sex and province or territory. We used data from the Canadian Cancer Registry (until 2022) and the Canadian Vital Statistics Death Database (until 2023). We modelled incidence and mortality with the canproj projection package.

In Canada, an estimated 254 100 people will be diagnosed with cancer and 87 900 will die from cancer in 2026. Overall, the ASIR (591.4 per 100 000) and the ASMR (200.0 per 100 000) are projected to decrease from previous years. Lung, breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers are projected to account for 47% of all new cases. The ASIR for all cancers combined is anticipated to be 16% higher among males than females (642.2 v. 553.9 per 100 000), and the ASMR 36% higher (235.8 v. 172.8 per 100 000). Notable findings in cancer-specific rates by sex were observed.

Age-standardized cancer incidence and mortality rates are projected to decline in Canada; however, the numbers of new cases and deaths are expected to remain at high levels, given the growing and aging population, with differential impacts expected by sex. These findings suggest that continued investment and diligence are needed to continue the major progress in cancer control in the face of changing population demographics.