Energy and emissions implications of automated vehicles in the U.S. energy system

Vehicle automation has the potential to drastically transform transportation, with important implications for energy and the environment. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the impact of automation on travel demand and vehicle efficiency. We utilize the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy system model to examine four previously published scenarios that consider different effects of automation on efficiency and demand. We do not replicate detailed estimation of individual mechanisms but apply key outcomes from prior studies within a broader energy system framework. Our analysis adds insights on fuel switching, upstream impacts, and air emissions. MARKAL dynamically captures interactions between transportation and non-transportation sectors, which is important given that the revolutionary shifts from automation may invalidate static assumptions. Model results suggest that increasing travel demands from automation may boost fuel use and petroleum-based fuel prices, potentially increasing the market penetration of alternative-fuel vehicles. In contrast, dramatic efficiency improvements from automation could drive fuel prices lower, greatly reducing the competitiveness of alternative-fueled vehicles. Furthermore, these shifts could yield positive or negative environmental impacts. Some automation scenarios even resulted in counterintuitive results. For example, if high levels of efficiency improvement drive out alternative-fuel vehicles, such as battery electric and hybrids, a net worsening of air quality relative to the other scenarios could result. We also found system-level dynamics to be key. For example, reductions in liquid fuel prices led to increased consumption, and the resulting increase in air pollutant emissions offset a portion of the potential air quality benefits of automation.