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Ecotoxicological Methodologies to Evaluate Biomarkers at Different Scales in Neotropical Anurans
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Weighting and aggregating expert ecological judgments.

Victoria Hemming1,2,3, Anca M Hanea1,2, Terry Walshe2

  • 1The Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, 3052, Australia.

Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
|January 24, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Performance weighting can enhance expert judgments in ecological assessments, but improvement isn't guaranteed. The method validates uncertainty representation, aiding decision-makers in evaluating its practical application.

Keywords:
Classical Modelaggregationcalibrationequal weightsexpert judgmentperformance weights

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Environmental Science
  • Decision Science

Background:

  • Expert judgment aggregation is crucial for ecological questions.
  • Performance weighting, using calibration, is proposed to improve pooled judgments.
  • Limited practical guidance exists in ecological literature on performance weighting.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Extend the IDEA protocol with a four-step format to include performance-weighted aggregation.
  • Assess the improvement in pooled judgments using various performance measures.
  • Provide practical insights into the application, benefits, and challenges of performance weighting.

Main Methods:

  • Adapted the IDEA protocol (a structured expert judgment method) to incorporate the Classical Model's performance weighting.
  • Applied the extended protocol in a case study to evaluate its effectiveness.
  • Analyzed pooled judgments across different performance measures.

Main Results:

  • Performance weights demonstrated potential to improve judgments within the IDEA protocol.
  • No guaranteed improvement was observed a priori.
  • The study highlighted the importance of validating aggregated judgments, whether equally or performance weighted.

Conclusions:

  • Performance weighting can be a valuable tool for enhancing ecological expert judgments.
  • The decision to use performance weighting depends on a cost-benefit analysis for decision-makers.
  • The case study offers a practical framework for implementing and evaluating performance weighting, helping to avoid common pitfalls.