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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 30, 2025

Development of a Gaze-Contingent Display Framework Designed for Perceptual and Oculomotor Research with Simulated Central Vision Loss

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Uncertainty in learning, choice, and visual fixation.

Hrvoje Stojić¹, Jacob L Orquin^2,3, Peter Dayan⁴

¹Max Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, University College London, London WC1B 5EH, United Kingdom; h.stojic@ucl.ac.uk.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|January 26, 2020

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Uncertainty significantly impacts decision-making and learning in multiarmed-bandit tasks. Gaze allocation and choice behavior are demonstrably influenced by estimated option values and uncertainty levels.

Keywords:

decision making exploration–exploitation reinforcement learning uncertainty visual fixation

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Area of Science:

Cognitive Neuroscience
Computational Neuroscience
Behavioral Economics

Background:

Uncertainty is crucial in reinforcement learning and decision-making, but its precise behavioral influence is not fully understood.
Multiarmed-bandit tasks provide a framework to study the relationship between values, uncertainty, learning, and choice.
Computational models like approximate Kalman filters can analyze these complex interactions.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate how uncertainty influences behavior in decision-making tasks.
To examine the role of estimated value and uncertainty in guiding attention and choice.
To understand the impact of momentary uncertainty on outcome evaluation.

Main Methods:

Utilized multiarmed-bandit tasks to model decision-making processes.
Collected behavioral data, including overt gaze allocation (eye-tracking).
Employed approximate Kalman filters to estimate option values and uncertainty.

Main Results:

Both estimated option value and uncertainty influenced where subjects directed their gaze before making a choice.
Gaze fixation duration on outcomes was determined by a momentary measure of uncertainty (absolute prediction errors).
Estimated value, uncertainty, and fixation duration all significantly predicted choice behavior.

Conclusions:

Uncertainty plays a multifaceted role in guiding behavior during decision-making.
Gaze behavior serves as an indicator of how uncertainty influences attention and choice.
Findings highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty into computational models of learning and decision-making.