A Simple Equation to Estimate Half-Marathon Race Time From the Cooper Test

Area of Science:

• Sports Science
• Exercise Physiology
• Running Performance Analysis

Background:

• Half-marathon participation is rising globally among recreational athletes.
• New and recreational runners require reliable training advice for pacing long-distance races.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a simple, valid equation for estimating half-marathon time.
• To utilize the Cooper test as a predictor for race performance.

Main Methods:

• 198 recreational runners (177 male, 21 female) completed the Cooper test before their race.
• Stepwise multiple regression analysis identified key predictors of half-marathon time.
• The Cooper test performance (distance covered) was analyzed against actual race times.

Main Results:

• Cooper test performance strongly correlated with half-marathon time (r = -0.906, P < .0001).
• A derived equation demonstrated high predictive validity (R² = 0.82) with low bias (mean difference 0.48 min).
• Concurrent validity was confirmed through correlation coefficient (0.9038) and bias analysis.

Conclusions:

• A validated equation using Cooper test data accurately predicts half-marathon times for recreational runners.
• The derived equation offers high predictive and concurrent validity with minimal systematic bias.
• This tool aids runners in establishing effective race pacing strategies.