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Anthropogenically-driven increases in the risks of summertime compound hot extremes.
Jun Wang1, Yang Chen2, Simon F B Tett3
1Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China.
Nature Communications
|February 13, 2020
Summary
Compound hot extremes, combining day and night heat, are increasing in frequency and intensity. Greenhouse gases are the primary driver, with significant future increases projected, impacting populations globally.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Extreme Weather Events
- Atmospheric Science
Background:
- Compound hot extremes, characterized by concurrent daytime and nighttime heat, pose greater risks than isolated heat events.
- Understanding the historical changes, drivers, and societal consequences of compound hot extremes is limited.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze past and project future changes in Northern Hemisphere summertime compound hot extremes.
- To identify the primary drivers of observed trends in compound hot extremes.
- To assess the projected societal impacts, specifically population exposure, under different emission scenarios.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of observational data from 1960-2012 to determine trends in frequency and intensity.
- Detection and attribution of climate change forcing, particularly greenhouse gases (GHGs), on observed trends.
- Utilizing observationally-constrained projections to forecast future changes in compound hot extremes and population exposure.
Main Results:
- Summertime compound hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere significantly increased in frequency (~1.03 days/decade) and intensity (~0.28°C/decade) from 1960-2012.
- Rising greenhouse gas concentrations were identified as the main driver of these observed increases.
- Projections indicate an eightfold increase in frequency and threefold increase in intensity by 2100 under uncurbed emissions.
- Population exposure to compound hot extremes is projected to increase four to eightfold by the end of the century.
Conclusions:
- Compound hot extremes are intensifying and becoming more frequent due to anthropogenic climate change, primarily driven by greenhouse gas emissions.
- Future emissions pathways will significantly influence the magnitude of increase in compound hot extremes and associated population exposure.
- Urgent mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to limit the severe impacts of escalating compound hot extremes.
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