Association between neurological deterioration and outcomes in patients with stroke

Neurological deterioration (ND) shortly after stroke is common in Chinese patients. We aimed to determine the effects of ND during hospitalization on stroke prognosis.

We retrospectively reviewed files from the stroke registry of the Department of Neurology of Tianjin Huanhu Hospital between October 1, 2008, and December 31, 2015. The inclusion criteria were: age ≥18 years, diagnosis of acute ischemic stroke, and first-ever ischemic stroke occurring within 7 days prior to admission. ND was defined as an increase in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score by ≥4 points during hospitalization. Early neurological deterioration (END) was defined as an increase in the NIHSS score by ≥4 points between the baseline and 48-hour evaluations. Late neurological deterioration (LND) was defined as an increase in the NIHSS score by ≥4 points between the 48-hour and discharge evaluations. Multivariate regression was used to evaluate the relationship between early and late ND and short- and long-term outcomes. Primary and secondary outcomes based on the modified Rankin scale (mRS) were evaluated at 3 months and 1 year. Favorable and poor outcomes were defined as mRS scores of 0-2 and ≥3, respectively.

A total of 9,650 patients were included. ND occurred in 293 patients (3.0%) during hospitalization. Among them, 192 (65.5%) were in the END group, and 101 (34.5%) were in the LND group. After adjusting for age, gender, and NIHSS scores, END was a significant independent predictor of poor outcome at both 3 months (primary outcome OR 8.069, secondary outcome OR 8.194) and 1 year (primary outcome OR 7.895, secondary outcome OR 5.679). The same pattern was seen in the LND group (3 months primary outcome OR 7.608, secondary outcome OR 6.349, 1-year primary outcome OR 10.793, secondary outcome OR 5.245).

ND during hospitalization, regardless of whether it occurs in the early or late period after stroke, is an independent predictor of poor prognosis.