The macroeconomic impacts of diet-related fiscal policy for NCD prevention: A systematic review

Diet-related fiscal policies are effective interventions to address non-communicable disease. However, despite these being economic policy instruments, there is little public health attention given to the evidence of macroeconomic impacts. This review aims to assess the global evidence for the macroeconomic impact of diet-related fiscal policies for non-communicable disease prevention on industry revenue, government revenue and employment.

For this systematic review we comprehensively searched the bibliographic databases MEDLINE, OvidSP, EMBASE, Global Health, SCOPUS, CINAHL and ECONLIT, and Google Scholar for English peer-reviewed studies or grey literature, with no date cut-off. Global interventions with a focus on diet-related fiscal strategies were assessed for the outcomes of industry revenue, gross domestic product, government revenue and employment. We excluded non-English papers.

Eleven studies met the inclusion criteria. All studies were on sugar sweetened beverage taxation and one also included an energy-dense food tax. Nine were modelling studies and two used interrupted time series analysis based on empirical evidence. One study found potential employment increases because of taxation; two found no significant job losses and eight found reduced employment. Taxes reduced sales volume and revenue within the sugar/beverage industry. Government revenue generation was positive in all studies. One study considered redistribution of consumer and government spending to other goods and services; INTERPRETATION: We found no robust evidence for negative macroeconomic impacts of diet-related fiscal policies, likely a reflection of the limited methodology used in the analyses. This review suggests that there is a need for more high-quality research into the macroeconomic impacts of diet related fiscal measures and similar to tobacco taxation, government should consider directing revenue generated towards complementary measures to generate employment and/or provide livelihood training for those affected.