A clinical staging model for bipolar disorder: longitudinal approach

Bipolar disorder (BD) has been identified as a life-course illness with different clinical manifestations from an at-risk to a late stage, supporting the assumption that it would benefit from a staging model. In a previous study, we used a clustering approach to stratify 224 patients with a diagnosis of BD into five clusters based on clinical characteristics, functioning, cognition, general health, and health-related quality of life. This study was design to test the construct validity of our previously developed k-means clustering model and to confirm its longitudinal validity over a span of 3 years. Of the 224 patients included at baseline who were used to develop our model, 129 (57.6%) reached the 3-year follow-up. All life domains except mental health-related quality of life (QoL) showed significant worsening in stages (p < 0.001), suggesting construct validity. Furthermore, as patients progressed through stages, functional decline (p < 0.001) and more complex treatment patterns (p = 0.002) were observed. As expected, at 3 years, the majority of patients remained at the same stage (49.6%), or progressed (20.9%) or regressed (23.3%) one stage. Furthermore, 85% of patients who stayed euthymic during that period remained at the same stage or regressed to previous stages, supporting its longitudinal validity. For that reason, this study provides evidence of the construct and longitudinal validity of an empirically developed, comprehensive staging model for patients with BD. Thus, it may help clinicians and researchers to better understand the disorder and, at the same time, to design more accurate and personalized treatment plans.