Remote sensing for risk mapping of Aedes aegypti infestations: Is this a practical task?

Mosquito-borne diseases affect millions of individuals worldwide; the area of endemic transmission has been increasing due to several factors linked to globalization, urban sprawl, and climate change. The Aedes aegypti mosquito plays a central role in the dissemination of dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and urban yellow fever. Current preventive measures include mosquito control programs; however, identifying high-risk areas for mosquito infestation over a large geographic region based only on field surveys is labor-intensive and time-consuming. Thus, the objective of this study was to assess the potential of remote satellite images (WorldView) for determining land features associated with Ae. aegypti adult infestations in São José do Rio Preto/SP, Brazil. We used data from 60 adult mosquito traps distributed along four summers; the remote sensing images were classified by land cover types using a supervised classification method. We modeled the number of Ae. aegypti using a Poisson probability distribution with a geostatistical approach. The models were constructed in a Bayesian context using the Integrated nested Laplace Approximations and Stochastic Partial Differential Equation method. We showed that an infestation of Ae. aegypti adult mosquitoes was positively associated with the presence of asbestos roofing and roof slabs. This may be related to several other factors, such as socioeconomic or environmental factors. The usage of asbestos roofing may be more prevalent in socioeconomically poor areas, while roof slabs may retain rainwater and contribute to the generation of temporary mosquito breeding sites. Although preliminary, our results demonstrate the utility of satellite remote sensing in identifying landscape differences in urban environments using a geostatistical approach, and indicated directions for future research. Further analyses including other variables, such as land surface temperature, may reveal more complex relationships between urban mosquito micro-habitats and land cover features.