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Increasing Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Oman: A Joinpoint Trend Analysis
Najla A Al-Lawati1, Sarooj M Shenoy1, Bassim J Al-Bahrani2
1Department of Non-communicable Diseases Control, Directorate General of Primary Health Care, Ministry of Health, Muscat, Oman.
Oman Medical Journal
|February 26, 2020
Summary
Thyroid cancer incidence in Oman is increasing, particularly in women, with rates projected to double by 2040. Controlling obesity could prevent nearly 10% of thyroid cancer cases.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Oncology
- Public Health
Background:
- Thyroid cancer incidence varies globally.
- Oman has experienced a notable increase in thyroid cancer cases over two decades.
- Understanding these trends is crucial for public health planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the epidemiology and trends of thyroid cancer in Oman from 1996 to 2015.
- To project future incidence rates based on observed trends.
- To identify preventable factors like obesity.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of 1285 primary thyroid cancer cases from the Oman National Cancer Registry (1996-2015).
- Calculation of age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) using the World Standard Population.
- Joinpoint regression analysis to assess trends and project future incidence.
Main Results:
- A female to male ratio of 4:1 was observed.
- Significant increasing trends in thyroid cancer incidence were detected in women (APC=14.3%) and overall (APC=16.7%) between 2008-2015.
- Incidence is projected to increase significantly by 2040, especially in women.
- Obesity is a significant risk factor, with potential for 10% prevention.
Conclusions:
- Oman shows moderate but increasing thyroid cancer incidence, predominantly in women.
- Projected doubling of rates in women necessitates proactive public health strategies.
- Prevention programs targeting obesity are recommended for noncommunicable disease control.
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