New Preoperative Nomogram Using the Centrality Index to Predict High Nuclear Grade Clear Cell Renal Carcinoma

Nuclear grading is an independent prognosis factor of clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). A non-invasive preoperative predictive WHO/International Society of Urologic Pathology (WHO/ISUP) grading of ccRCC model is needed for clinical use. The anatomical complexity scoring system can span a variety of image modalities. The Centrality index (CI) is a quantitatively anatomical score commonly used for renal tumors. The purpose of this study was to develop a simple model to predict WHO/ISUP grading based on CI.

The data in this study were from 248 ccRCC patients from five hospitals. We developed three predictive models using training data from 167 patients: a CI-only model, a valuable clinical parameter model and a fusion model of CI with valuable clinical parameters. We compared and evaluated the three models by discrimination, clinical usefulness and calibration, then tested them in a set of validation data from 81 patients.

The fusion model consisting of CI and tumor size (valuable clinical parameter) had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.82. In the validation set, the AUC was 0.85. The decision curve showed that the model had a good net benefit between the threshold probabilities of 5-80%. And the calibration curve showed good calibration in the training set and validation set.

This study confirms that CI is associated with the WHO/ISUP grade of ccRCC, and the possibility that a bivariate model incorporating tumor size may help urologist's evaluation patients' prognostic.