Identification of Risk Factors Prospectively Associated With Musculoskeletal Injury in a Warrior Athlete Population

Area of Science:

• Sports Medicine
• Military Health
• Injury Epidemiology

Background:

• Musculoskeletal injuries are a leading cause of disability.
• Understanding injury risk factors is crucial for effective prevention programs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a method for categorizing warrior athletes based on injury risk using multiple predictive factors.
• To identify key predictors of time-loss injuries (TLI) in military personnel.

Main Methods:

• Prospective observational cohort study of 922 US Army soldiers/warrior athletes.
• Collected baseline data via surveys and physical measures; tracked injuries and healthcare utilization for one year.
• Used logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to identify significant risk factors for TLI.

Main Results:

• 38.8% of participants sustained a time-loss injury (TLI) within one year.
• A multivariate model with 11 variables significantly predicted TLI (adjusted R² = 0.21, OR = 5.7).
• The model demonstrated high sensitivity (0.89 with 2 variables) and specificity (0.94 with ≥7 variables).

Conclusions:

• A combination of risk factors, including prior injury history, movement asymmetry, and performance metrics, accurately predicts TLI in military servicemembers.
• This predictive model can inform the development of targeted injury prevention strategies.
• Identifying individuals at higher risk can reduce healthcare costs and lost duty time.