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  3. Climate Adaptation By Crop Migration.
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  3. Climate Adaptation By Crop Migration.

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Climate adaptation by crop migration.

Lindsey L Sloat1,2, Steven J Davis3, James S Gerber4

  • 1Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523, USA. lindsey.sloat@colostate.edu.

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|March 8, 2020

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Crop migration has already reduced the negative impacts of climate change on global crop yields. Future crop distribution shifts will depend on environmental, socio-economic, and political factors.

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Climate Science
  • Environmental Science

Background:

  • Climate change poses significant risks to global crop yields.
  • Existing research often assumes static crop geographic distributions, neglecting adaptive migration.
  • Crop movement is a theoretical adaptive strategy but lacks global-scale quantification.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess how shifts in rainfed crop areas have influenced growing season temperature trends.
  • To quantify the impact of crop migration on moderating climate change effects on major crops.
  • To analyze the mediating role of crop migration and irrigation expansion on climate impacts.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized spatially-explicit climate and crop area data from 1973 to 2012.
  • Analyzed changes in rainfed crop distribution for maize, wheat, rice, and soybean.
  • Assessed the relationship between crop migration, irrigation expansion, and temperature trends.

    • Main Results:

    • Crop migration has substantially moderated the adverse effects of warming on rainfed maize, wheat, and rice.
    • The expansion of irrigation has also played a role in mitigating climate change impacts.
    • Observed changes in crop areas have already mediated growing season temperature trends.

    Conclusions:

    • Crop migration has been an effective adaptive response to climate change, moderating yield impacts.
    • Continued crop migration may lead to significant environmental costs.
    • Future crop distribution will be influenced by land suitability, climate, and socio-economic factors.