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Forest carbon protocols underestimate climate-driven carbon loss risks.
Chao Wu1,2,3, Grayson Badgley4, Michael L Goulden5,6
1Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China. chao-wu@tsinghua.edu.cn.
Nature
|May 20, 2026
Summary
Forests are vital for climate mitigation, but natural disturbances risk carbon loss. Current carbon offset buffer pools are too small, requiring revisions to account for climate change impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Forestry
- Ecology
Background:
- Forests are promoted as nature-based solutions for climate change mitigation.
- Accurate accounting of carbon stock losses from disturbances is crucial for climate mitigation strategies.
- Buffer pools in carbon crediting projects need accurate sizing to compensate for unintended carbon losses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To map the risk of carbon loss from natural disturbances in the contiguous United States (CONUS).
- To assess the adequacy of current buffer pool sizes in forest climate mitigation programs under climate change.
- To provide spatially explicit data for revising carbon offset methodologies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized forest inventory data, satellite imagery, disturbance modeling, and machine learning.
- Quantified the 100-year risk of carbon loss due to natural disturbances across CONUS forests.
- Estimated the deficit in current buffer pool sizes for major forest climate mitigation programs.
Main Results:
- Climate change is projected to increase the risk of forest carbon loss from natural disturbances in CONUS.
- The risk is particularly elevated in California and the Intermountain West.
- Current buffer pools are likely underestimated by an average factor of 6.3, with potential underestimation ranging from 2.2- to 8.0-fold.
Conclusions:
- Existing methodologies for carbon offset buffer pools are insufficient under climate change.
- Spatially explicit risk maps highlight the need for revised buffer pool calculations.
- Forest carbon sinks require robust management strategies to ensure their role in climate mitigation.
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