[Construction and evaluation of a novel diagnosis pathway for 2019-Corona Virus Disease]

Objective: To construct and evaluate a diagnosis pathway (Xiangya pathway) for Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: Consecutive subjects aged ≥12 years old who were screened for COVID-19 were included in Xiangya Hospital of Central South University from January 23 to February 3, 2020, and the subjects were further divided into the inception cohort and the validation cohort. The gender, age, onset time of disease of the subjects were recorded. The information of epidemiological history, fever, and the declined blood lymphocytes were collected as clinical indicators, CT scan was used to evaluate the possibility of COVID-19 and range of lung involvement. According to the current Chinese national standards, throat swabs of suspected cases were collected and the nucleic acid of COVID-19 was detected by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). The Xiangya pathway was constructed with multi-indexes, compared with clinical indicators, CT results and Chinese national standards, their effectiveness of detecting confirmed cases were verified in the inception and validation cohort. Results: A total of 382 consecutive adults who was screened for COVID-19 were included, and 261 cases were in the inception cohort and 121 cases were in the validation cohort. Among the 382 cases, 192 were males (50.3%) and 190 were females (49.7%), with a median age of 35 years (range: 15-92 years). There were 183 cases (47.9%) with epidemiological history, 275 cases (72.0%) with fever, 212 cases (55.5%) with decreased peripheral blood lymphocytes, 114 cases (29.8%) with positive CT findings, 43 cases (11.3%) with positive CT-COVID-19, and 30 cases (7.9%) with positive virus nucleic acid by throat swab. Compared with clinical indicators, the sensitivity and specificity of CT were 0.950 and 0.704, respectively. The accuracy of CT to make a definite diagnosis was higher than that of epidemiological history, fever, and declined blood lymphocyte count (0.809 vs 0.660, 0.532, 0.596, P=0.001, 0.002, 0.003, respectively). The sensitivity of this pathway and the pathway recommended by the Health Commission of China were both high (all were 1.000), while the specificity and accuracy of the Xiangya pathway were higher than the one recommended by the Health Commission (0.872 vs 0.765, 0.778 vs 0.592, both P<0.001). The CT-COVID-19 reduced the missed diagnosis rate caused by false negative of nucleic acid test (31 vs 64), with difference rate of 51.6%, and the positive rate of nucleic acid test was 64.5% (20/31). In validation cohort, the specificity and accuracy of the Xiangya pathway was 0.967, the positive rate of nucleic acid test was 76.9%(10/13). Conclusions: The Xiangya pathway can predict the nucleic acid test results of COVID-19, and can be applied as a reliable strategy to screen patients with suspected COVID-19 among people aged ≥12 years in areas other than Hubei during the epidemic period of COVID-19. The cohort size needs to be increased for further validation.