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COVID-19 - the role of mass gatherings
Shahul H Ebrahim1, Ziad A Memish2
1University of Sciences, Technique and Technology, Bamako, Mali.
Insights
Cancelling mass gatherings, like the Hajj pilgrimage, is crucial for mitigating pandemic spread. Mathematical models can quantify how event cancellations reduce disease transmission, especially during novel pathogen outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease
Background:
- Mass gatherings (MGs) play a significant role in the emergence and spread of novel pathogens, as highlighted by the COVID-19 pandemic.
- The 2009 H1N1 pandemic and the subsequent COVID-19 Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) underscore the global health implications of MGs.
- The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has extensive experience with large-scale MGs, such as the annual Hajj pilgrimage.
Purpose of the Study:
- To highlight the critical role of mass gatherings in pandemic exacerbation and transmission.
- To emphasize the importance of cancelling or suspending MGs for pandemic mitigation, especially when medical countermeasures are unavailable.
- To propose the development of mathematical models to quantify the impact of MG cancellations on disease transmission, using the KSA's Umrah suspension during COVID-19 as a case study.
Main Methods:
- Review of the role of mass gatherings in the spread of novel pathogens during PHEICs.
- Analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on mass gatherings and global health.
- Proposal for the development of mathematical models to assess mitigation strategies through event cancellation.
Main Results:
- Mass gatherings significantly contribute to the emergence, sustenance, and transmission of novel pathogens.
- Cancellation or suspension of mass gatherings is a critical strategy for pandemic mitigation.
- The Umrah suspension in KSA offers a unique opportunity to model the impact of event cancellations on COVID-19 transmission.
Conclusions:
- Mass gathering medicine is essential for understanding and managing global health threats.
- Proactive cancellation of mass gatherings is a key strategy for pandemic mitigation.
- Mathematical modeling of event cancellations can provide valuable insights for public health interventions during pandemics.
Abstract:
Mass gathering (MG) medicine emerged against the backdrop of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) when the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) hosted the largest annual mass gathering of over 3 million pilgrims from 180 plus countries. However, the events surrounding the latest threat to global health, the PHEIC COVID-19, may be sufficient to highlight the role of mass gatherings, mass migration, and other forms of dense gatherings of people on the emergence, sustenance, and transmission of novel pathogens. The COVID-19 spread illustrates the role of MGs in exacerbation of the scope of pandemics. Cancellation or suspension of MGs would be critical to pandemic mitigation. It is unlikely that medical countermeasures are available during the early phase of pandemics. Therefore, mitigation of its impact, rather than containment and control becomes a priority during pandemics. As the most systematically studied MG-related respiratory disease data come from KSA, the cancellation of Umrah by the KSA authorities, prior to emergence of cases, provide the best opportunity to develop mathematical models to quantify event cancellations related mitigation of COVID-19 transmission in KSA and to the home countries of pilgrims. COVID-19 has already provided examples of both clearly planned event cancellations such as the Umrah suspension in KSA, and where outbreaks and events were continued.
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