Time-Dependent Effects in Chronic Urticaria: A Time-Series Perspective of Omalizumab Treatment

Chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU, or CU) is a disease that significantly affects the quality of life of patients. It is a chronic disease and requires a specialized approach to diagnosis and treatment. In recent years, the disease has been of great interest due to the existence of new targeted therapeutic approaches.

The present study aims at analyzing CU score concerning time, as a time-series. The authors have attempted to model the investigated time-series to unravel possible causative relationships.

108 patients (25Males/83Females) admitted to our department were diagnosed with CU. CU was estimated on a score basis, which was used to define disease severity. Urticaria score was assessed on the basis of Urticaria Activity Score 7 (UAS7). The mean CU score, the mean CU score rate concerning the first month at diagnosis as well as the monthly CU score rate were calculated.

Gender is a factor that influences CU score with time. In addition, there was a significant finding that time-series differ with the administration of monotherapy or complementary therapy.

We have found that females are more prone to CU, while omalizumab monotherapy has more beneficial results as compared to the application of concurrent and maintenance therapies. Further, patients with co-morbidities were more likely to interrupt treatment. Finally, and most significantly, it was shown that monthly CU score rate manifested an oscillatory pattern, which was modelled with the sum of sines functions, highlighting a relative immunological pattern.