Model-based reconstruction of the Ulysse-Virginia oil spill, October-November 2018

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Oceanography
• Marine Pollution

Background:

• A significant oil spill occurred on October 7, 2018, following a ship collision.
• Accurate prediction of oil spill transport and fate is crucial for effective environmental response.

Purpose of the Study:

• To utilize the MEDSLIK-II model to predict the transport and fate of an oil spill.
• To validate model performance against real-world observations, specifically the first oil-beaching event.

Main Methods:

• Employed the Lagrangian oil spill model MEDSLIK-II.
• Forced oil drift simulations using Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS) sea circulation and ECMWF wind data.
• Conducted five successive model runs, incorporating observational data from REMPEC and Copernicus Sentinel-1.

Main Results:

• General consistency was observed among the model runs.
• Only the final model initialization successfully predicted the oil beaching event near Saint-Tropez on October 16.
• Stochastic simulations indicated that coastlines between Cap Lardier and the Gulf of Saint-Tropez were highly susceptible to impact.

Conclusions:

• The accuracy of oil spill prediction models is highly dependent on the timely integration of observational data.
• The MEDSLIK-II model, when properly initialized, can effectively forecast oil spill trajectories and impact zones.
• Specific coastal areas were identified as high-risk zones for future oil spill events in the region.