A New Nomogram Allowing Physicians to Predict Patients at High Risk of Fever Occurring After Prostate Biopsy

BACKGROUND To facilitate early treatment, we constructed a nomogram to predict risk of postoperative fever before prostate biopsy in patients with high risk of fever. MATERIAL AND METHODS We collected information on patients undergoing prostate biopsy from January 2015 to December 2018 from their medical records, including clinical characteristics and laboratory test results. Finally, after strict screening, the prediction model was established in 440 patients who underwent a transrectal prostate biopsy (TRPB). We divided these patients into a training group and validation group at a ratio of 7: 3, respectively. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to select the predictors and to develop the model. Calibration curve and C-index were used to evaluate the accuracy of the nomogram, while DCA was used to assess the clinical value. RESULTS The individualized predictive nomogram contained 3 clinical features - Biopsy-positive rate (BPR), Hematuria, and Urine WBC - significantly associated with post-biopsy fever. The nomogram had good discriminating ability in both the training group and validation group - the C-index was 0.774 (95% CI=0.717-0.832) in the training group and 0.808 (95% CI=0.706-0.909) in the validation group. Hosmer-Lemeshow test proved a good calibration curve fit. The DCA curve suggested that the nomogram would have good clinical utility. CONCLUSIONS This is the first study to develop a nomogram to predict fever after prostate biopsy via Biopsy-positive rate (BPR), Hematuria, and Urine WBC. Use of this nomogram might help prevent fever and infection, and could facilitate individualized medical treatment after prostate biopsy.