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Updated: Dec 24, 2025
Predictive Immune Modeling of Solid Tumors
Published on: February 25, 2020
Prognostic value of volumetric PET parameters at early response evaluation in melanoma patients treated with
Ryusuke Nakamoto1, Lisa C Zaba2, Jarrett Rosenberg3
1Division of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging, Department of Radiology, Stanford University, 300 Pasteur Drive, Stanford, CA, 94305-5281, USA. inabook@stanford.edu.
Purpose:
The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and other metabolic tumor parameters, obtained from baseline and first restaging 18F-FDG PET/CT scans in melanoma patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs).
Methods:
Eighty-five consecutive melanoma patients (M, 57; F, 28) treated with ICIs who underwent PET/CT scans before and approximately 3 months after the start of immunotherapy were retrospectively enrolled. Metabolic tumor parameters including MTV for all melanoma lesions were measured on each scan. A Cox proportional hazards model was used for univariate and multivariate analyses of metabolic parameters combined with known clinical prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS). Kaplan-Meier curves for patients dichotomized based on median values of imaging parameters were generated.
Results:
The median OS time in all patients was 45 months (95% CI 24-45 months). Univariate analysis demonstrated that MTV obtained from first restaging PET/CT scans (MTVpost) was the strongest prognostic factor for OS among PET/CT parameters (P < 0.0001). The median OS in patients with high MTVpost (≥ 23.44) was 16 months (95% CI 12-32 months) as compared with more than 60 months in patients with low MTVpost (< 23.44) (P = 0.0003). A multivariate model including PET/CT parameters and known clinical prognostic factors revealed that MTVpost and the presence of central nervous system lesions were independent prognostic factors for OS (P = 0.0004, 0.0167, respectively). One pseudoprogression case (1.2%) was seen in this population and classified into the high MTVpost group.
Conclusion:
Whole-body metabolic tumor volume from PET scan acquired approximately 3 months following initiation of immunotherapy (MTVpost) is a strong prognostic indicator of OS in melanoma patients. Although the possibility of pseudoprogression must be considered whenever evaluating first restaging PET imaging, it only occurred in 1 patient in our cohort.
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