Analyzing the Quality and Challenges of Uncertainty Estimations for Brain Tumor Segmentation

Automatic segmentation of brain tumors has the potential to enable volumetric measures and high-throughput analysis in the clinical setting. Reaching this potential seems almost achieved, considering the steady increase in segmentation accuracy. However, despite segmentation accuracy, the current methods still do not meet the robustness levels required for patient-centered clinical use. In this regard, uncertainty estimates are a promising direction to improve the robustness of automated segmentation systems. Different uncertainty estimation methods have been proposed, but little is known about their usefulness and limitations for brain tumor segmentation. In this study, we present an analysis of the most commonly used uncertainty estimation methods in regards to benefits and challenges for brain tumor segmentation. We evaluated their quality in terms of calibration, segmentation error localization, and segmentation failure detection. Our results show that the uncertainty methods are typically well-calibrated when evaluated at the dataset level. Evaluated at the subject level, we found notable miscalibrations and limited segmentation error localization (e.g., for correcting segmentations), which hinder the direct use of the voxel-wise uncertainties. Nevertheless, voxel-wise uncertainty showed value to detect failed segmentations when uncertainty estimates are aggregated at the subject level. Therefore, we suggest a careful usage of voxel-wise uncertainty measures and highlight the importance of developing solutions that address the subject-level requirements on calibration and segmentation error localization.