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Future land use changes in a peri-urban context: Local stakeholder views
Eduardo Gomes1, Arnaud Banos2, Patrícia Abrantes3
1Géographie-cités, UMR 8504, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France; Centro de Estudos Geográficos (CEG), Instituto de Geografia e Ordenamento do Território (IGOT), Universidade de Lisboa (UL), Portugal.
The Science of the Total Environment
|April 25, 2020
Summary
This study integrates stakeholder insights into land use modeling for future planning. Engaging local experts improved the accuracy of predicting land cover changes under various scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Spatial Planning
- Geographic Information Systems
Background:
- Future land use/cover change (LUCC) analysis is crucial for spatial planning.
- Stakeholder participation in land use modeling remains limited.
- Integrating diverse sector perspectives enhances planning accuracy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and assess future land use/cover change (LUCC) scenarios with stakeholder engagement.
- To implement a participatory methodology for analyzing LUCC model outcomes.
- To improve spatial planning by incorporating local knowledge and intentions.
Main Methods:
- A participatory workshop was conducted with stakeholders from planning, agriculture, and forestry sectors.
- Land use intentions were analyzed for scenarios including Business as Usual, food security, climate change, and urban pressure.
- A hybrid Cellular Automata-Geographic Information Systems model (stakeholder-LUCC model) was developed in NetLogo.
Main Results:
- Stakeholders' views on plausible future LUCC were spatialized using the stakeholder-LUCC model.
- The model identified suitable land conversion areas based on stakeholder perspectives.
- The study modeled the "where, when, why, and what" of future land conversions.
Conclusions:
- Stakeholder-informed land use modeling enhances the efficiency of spatial planning.
- This approach enables better decision-making to prevent undesirable future land use changes.
- The methodology is particularly valuable for addressing extreme events like food security and climate change impacts.
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