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[Economy in Shock - Financial Policy is Holding Up]
Oliver Holtemöller1, Stefan Kooths2, Claus Michelsen3
12Abteilung Makroökonomik, Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle, Kleine Märkerstraße 8, 06108 Halle (Saale), Deutschland.
Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg, Germany : 1949)
|April 28, 2020
Summary
The German economy faces a significant slump due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP projected to shrink by 4.2% and unemployment rising. A strong recovery is expected next year, but risks remain.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Pandemic Impact Studies
Context:
- German economy severely impacted by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
- Government interventions aimed at curbing infection rates have led to significant economic downturn.
Purpose:
- To forecast the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Germany.
- To project GDP, unemployment, and national budget changes.
- To identify risks associated with the economic recovery.
Summary:
- Projected GDP contraction of 4.2% for the current year.
- Anticipated peak unemployment rate of 5.9% and 2.4 million short-time workers.
- Record general government budget deficit of 159 billion euro due to stabilization measures.
- Expected strong GDP growth of 5.8% in the following year.
Impact:
- Significant labor market disruption and national budget strain.
- Gradual economic recovery anticipated post-pandemic shutdown.
- Downside risks to the forecast include pandemic resurgence and slower-than-expected economic recovery.
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