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[Demographic Ageing Leads to a Sharply Declining Labour Force Potential]
Johann Fuchs1, Doris Söhnlein1, Birgit Weber1
1Prognosen und gesamtwirtschaftliche Analysen (MAKRO), Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Regensburger Str. 104, 90478 Nürnberg, Deutschland.
Wirtschaftsdienst (Hamburg, Germany : 1949)
|February 28, 2022
Summary
Germany
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Economics
- Sociology
Context:
- Germany faces a declining working-age population due to demographic shifts.
- The age structure is increasingly skewed towards older individuals.
Purpose:
- To analyze the impact of demographic changes on Germany's future labor force.
- To evaluate mitigation strategies including increased labor force participation and immigration.
Summary:
- The German labor force is projected to decline by 16 million workers by 2060.
- Increased participation of women and elderly, alongside immigration, can significantly offset this decline.
- Net migration of 400,000 annually could maintain a stable potential labor force.
Impact:
- Provides crucial data for policy-making regarding workforce planning and immigration.
- Highlights the economic implications of demographic trends in Germany.
- Informs strategies to address potential labor shortages and support an aging population.
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