MELD-XI is predictive of mortality in venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is a life-saving method of supporting critically ill patients. However, it is expensive and associated with high morbidity and mortality, making early predictive outcome modeling extremely valuable. The model for end-stage liver disease-excluding international normalized ratio (MELD-XI) scoring system has been shown to have prognostic value in other critically ill patient populations.

A single-center retrospective review was performed for all adult patients managed on VA-ECMO from May 2011 to January 2018 (n = 247). Patients were included in the study if MELD-XI scores could be calculated during the first 48 hours on ECMO (n = 187). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed for MELD-XI in regard to in-hospital mortality.

Of the 187 patients, 74 (40%) patients had MELD-XI less than 14 (low-risk) and 113 (60%) had a MELD-XI of 14 or greater (high-risk). The cohorts did not differ significantly in terms of patient characteristics or indication for ECMO. The high-risk MELD-XI group had significantly greater mortality during index hospitalization compared to the low-risk group (74% vs 39%; P < .0001). Quartile stratification demonstrated progressively worse prognosis associated with higher MELD-XI scores; the fourth quartile showed a ninefold increased risk of mortality compared to the first quartile (P < .001). The AUC for predicting index hospitalization mortality was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.62-0.77) with a Youden index (J) of 0.36 and optimized cutoff of 12.98.

These findings suggest that the MELD-XI scoring system can be applied to the VA-ECMO patient population early in their course of ECMO as a prognostic tool to aid in complex clinical decision making.