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Mathematical Modelling to Assess the Impact of Lockdown on COVID-19 Transmission in India: Model Development and
Bakiya Ambikapathy1, Kamalanand Krishnamurthy1
1Department of Instrumentation Engineering, Madras Institute of Technology Campus, Anna University, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India.
JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
|May 5, 2020
Summary
A mathematical model predicts that a 21-day lockdown significantly reduces COVID-19 transmission in India. Extending the lockdown to 42 days further reduces cases, but longer periods show minimal benefit. Panic shopping scenarios can lead to exponential spread.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was declared a public health emergency by the World Health Organization.
- India faced a significant threat of community spread of COVID-19.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a mathematical model for predicting COVID-19.
- To assess the impact of various lockdown scenarios on COVID-19 transmission in India.
Main Methods:
- Developed an ordinary differential equation model incorporating reported cases from 14 countries.
- Validated the model and applied it to predict COVID-19 transmission in India under different lockdown durations (4, 14, 21, 42, 60 days).
- Assessed the impact of pre-lockdown increased exposure due to gatherings.
Main Results:
- The model accurately predicted COVID-19 cases in 14 countries.
- Lockdowns of 14 and 21 days showed marked reductions in Indian COVID-19 cases.
- A 42-day lockdown significantly reduced transmission, with diminishing returns for longer durations.
- Pre-lockdown 'panic shopping' scenarios predicted exponential transmission, overwhelming interventions.
Conclusions:
- A strict lockdown of at least 21 days is recommended to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India.
- Extending the lockdown to 42 days is necessary for significant transmission reduction.
- Relaxing lockdown measures prematurely can lead to exponential transmission and strain the healthcare system.
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