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Risk factors for disease progression in hospitalized patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

Wei Hou1, Wei Zhang1, Ronghua Jin1

  • 1Beijing YouAn Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.

Infectious Diseases (London, England)
|May 7, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Older age, elevated C-reactive protein (CRP), and lower lymphocyte counts are key risk factors for COVID-19 progression. Identifying these markers aids early detection of worsening coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases.

Area of Science:

  • Infectious Diseases
  • Clinical Medicine
  • Biomarkers

Background:

  • Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses significant public health challenges.
  • Understanding risk factors for disease aggravation is crucial for patient management.
  • Clinical outcomes and progression pathways in COVID-19 patients require further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify risk factors associated with disease progression in COVID-19 patients.
  • To analyze clinical outcomes in relation to identified risk factors.
  • To develop early indicators for identifying patients at risk of severe COVID-19.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective study design analyzing COVID-19 patient data.
  • Classification of patients into disease progression and improvement groups.
  • Multivariable logistic regression and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis to determine risk factors.

Main Results:

  • 101 patients analyzed; 17 showed disease progression, 6 required ICU transfer, and 5 died.
  • Older age (OR=0.104), elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) (OR=0.093), and lower lymphocyte count (OR=3.397) were significant risk factors for progression.
  • ROC analysis demonstrated high predictive values for age (AUC=0.873), CRP (AUC=0.911), and lymphocyte count (AUC=0.817).

Conclusions:

  • Older age, increased CRP levels, and decreased lymphocyte counts are significant predictors of COVID-19 progression.
  • These factors can aid in the early identification of patients likely to experience worsening COVID-19.
  • Findings support proactive monitoring and intervention for high-risk COVID-19 patients.

Keywords:
COVID-19risk factors outcome

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