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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 22, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework

Published on: July 24, 2016

Deforestation and world population sustainability: a quantitative analysis.

Mauro Bologna¹, Gerardo Aquino^2,3,4

¹Departamento de Ingeniería Eléctrica-Electrónica, Universidad de Tarapacá, Arica, Chile.

Scientific Reports

|May 8, 2020

Summary

Human population growth and deforestation pose significant risks to civilization. Our analysis indicates a less than 10% probability of survival without a catastrophic collapse, highlighting the urgent need for sustainable practices.

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Area of Science:

Ecology and Environmental Science
Population Dynamics
Sustainability Studies

Background:

Rapid human population growth is a primary driver of global resource consumption.
Deforestation, exacerbated by population pressures, significantly impacts ecological balance and climate.
Understanding the interplay between population dynamics and environmental degradation is crucial for long-term survival.

Purpose of the Study:

To quantitatively analyze the sustainability of global population growth alongside deforestation.
To assess the probability of avoiding civilizational collapse based on current trends.
To model the complex interactions between human population, technological advancement, and forest ecosystems.

Main Methods:

Statistical analysis employing a simplified stochastic growth model for population and technological evolution.
A continuous-time random walk model to represent technological progress.
A deterministic generalized logistic model to simulate human-forest interactions.

Main Results:

Current resource consumption and technological growth rates suggest a low probability (<10%) of avoiding catastrophic collapse.
The model indicates a high risk of self-destruction for human civilization under existing trajectories.
Optimistic estimates still point to a precarious future for global sustainability.

Conclusions:

The current trajectory of population growth and deforestation is unsustainable.
Urgent interventions are required to mitigate the risk of civilizational collapse.
Further research into sustainable development models is essential for ensuring long-term human survival.