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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Projected changes in flooding: a continental U.S. perspective.

Gabriele Villarini1, Wei Zhang1

  • 1IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa.

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences
|May 10, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Projected increases in maximum daily river flow are expected across the US, particularly in the Southeast and Pacific Northwest. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 show significant shifts in seasonal flooding patterns.

Keywords:
CMIP6continental United Statesextremesprojectionsrunoff

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Hydrology
  • Environmental Modeling

Background:

  • Understanding projected changes in extreme river flow is crucial for water resource management and flood risk assessment.
  • Previous studies have utilized global climate models (GCMs) to simulate future hydrological conditions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily runoff across the continental United States.
  • To assess the performance of GCMs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in simulating runoff extremes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized outputs from eight GCMs from CMIP6.
  • Analyzed projected changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily runoff at a regional scale.
  • Evaluated GCMs' ability to reproduce observed changes in runoff extremes.

Main Results:

  • GCMs generally reproduce observed runoff extreme changes, especially seasonally, with no single model outperforming others across all regions and seasons.
  • Annual maximum daily runoff is projected to increase in the 21st century across large areas of the southeastern US and Pacific Northwest.
  • Decreases in annual maximum daily runoff are projected for the Rocky Mountains and northern Great Plains, with the most significant changes occurring in winter and spring.

Conclusions:

  • Significant regional variations in projected changes to maximum daily runoff are expected throughout the 21st century.
  • Seasonal patterns of runoff extremes will likely shift, with winter and spring experiencing the most pronounced changes.
  • The findings highlight the need for adaptive water management strategies to address future flood risks under climate change.