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Local drivers in accelerating North American heat stress
Andreas F Prein1,2, Qinqin Kong3,4, Gabriele Villarini5,6
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland. aprein@ethz.ch.
Nature Communications
|May 19, 2026
Summary
Climate change is increasing extreme heat exposure in the U.S. by 21% since the 1940s, with 2°C warming potentially raising this by 273%, impacting health and economies.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Public Health
Background:
- Climate change exacerbates heat extremes, posing significant risks to human health and economic stability.
- Population exposure to extreme heat events has been rising globally.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the increase in population exposure to extreme heat in the U.S. since the 1940s.
- To project future heat exposure under 2°C global warming scenarios.
- To assess the implications for human health and economic productivity.
Main Methods:
- Utilized reanalysis data and climate simulations to analyze historical and projected heat exposure.
- Defined extreme heat using wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) exceeding 32°C.
- Investigated changes in heatwave frequency, duration, and intensity across different U.S. regions.
Main Results:
- Population exposure to extreme heat (WBGT > 32°C) in the U.S. has increased by 21% since the 1940s.
- A 2°C global warming scenario projects a 273% increase in heat exposure due to exponentially rising heat-stress frequency.
- Increased nighttime heat stress and decreased work capacity are anticipated, signaling severe health and economic consequences.
Conclusions:
- Heat stress exposure is projected to escalate significantly with further warming, necessitating urgent mitigation and adaptation measures.
- Tailored regional adaptation strategies are crucial, considering variations in heat stress drivers like temperature, humidity, and wind speed.
- Protecting vulnerable populations from the escalating impacts of extreme heat requires global efforts to limit warming and implement effective adaptation plans.
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