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Advancing Systemic Risk Assessment for Complex, Interdependent Systems: A Research Agenda.

Tom Logan1, B Rachunok2, K Hardaway1

  • 1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand.

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|April 14, 2026
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Engineering risk assessment needs new methods to address complex, interdependent systems. This paper proposes a taxonomy to guide research toward better systemic risk assessment, capturing cascading consequences and uncertainty.

Keywords:
cascading effectscomplex systemsinterdependenciesrisk assessment methodssystemic riskuncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Engineering
  • Risk Management
  • Systems Science

Background:

  • Traditional engineering risk assessment focuses on direct impacts, insufficient for complex, interdependent systems.
  • Societal risks increasingly arise from interconnected systems, revealing limitations of conventional methods.
  • Cascading consequences and uncertainty are poorly captured by existing risk assessment approaches.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Introduce a taxonomy of risk assessment methods to guide research and development.
  • Classify methods based on their ability to assess diverse consequences and systemic behaviors.
  • Address the gap in assessing systemic risks inherent in complex societal challenges.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a taxonomy classifying risk assessment methods into three tiers.
  • Tier 1: Direct impacts; Tier 2: Cascading consequences in interconnected systems; Tier 3: Emergent, transformative, and uncertain dynamics.
  • Identified key system and knowledge characteristics challenging current methods.

Main Results:

  • Proposed a three-tier taxonomy for risk assessment methods based on consequence and behavior assessment capabilities.
  • Highlighted the limitations of current methods in addressing systemic risks.
  • Outlined research priorities for advancing systemic risk assessment.

Conclusions:

  • A new taxonomy is essential for developing advanced risk assessment methods.
  • Future research must focus on analyzing consequences, structuring uncertainty, and improving causal inference.
  • The proposed research agenda aims to enhance methods for addressing complex systemic risks.