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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 9, 2025

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
05:37

An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model

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Towards inclusive risk-informed infrastructure development in expanding cities.

Fabrizio Nocera1, Yahya Gamal2,3, Chenbo Wang1

  • 1Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering, University College London, London, UK.

Communications Engineering
|September 2, 2025
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study introduces a new framework for urban infrastructure planning that considers socioeconomic impacts alongside natural hazards. It helps create more inclusive and risk-sensitive development in growing cities.

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Area of Science:

  • Urban Planning and Development
  • Socioeconomic Modeling
  • Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Current natural-hazard risk models overlook socioeconomic consequences of infrastructure design.
  • Urban expansion in the Global South faces unique challenges in balancing development and risk.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a people-centered decision-making framework for urban infrastructure development.
  • To integrate socioeconomic impacts and natural-hazard risks into infrastructure planning.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a bespoke agent-based model to simulate infrastructure expansion effects on land values and residential choices.
  • Incorporated macro-scale socioeconomic effects and infrastructure performance under natural hazards.
  • Optimized transportation expansion in a virtual urban testbed simulating Global South contexts.

Main Results:

  • The framework successfully models dynamic land values and residential location decisions influenced by infrastructure.
  • It balances infrastructure operational needs with potential losses from natural hazards.
  • Demonstrated optimization of transportation expansion in a representative urban setting.

Conclusions:

  • The proposed framework offers a novel approach to inclusive, risk-sensitive urban infrastructure planning.
  • It addresses unintended socioeconomic consequences in risk-informed development.
  • Applicable to rapidly growing, hazardous cities worldwide, particularly in the Global South.