Biomarkers Associated with Physical Resilience After Hip Fracture

Clinically similar older adults demonstrate variable responses to health stressors, heterogeneity attributable to differences in physical resilience. However, molecular mechanisms underlying physical resilience are unknown. We previously derived a measure of physical resilience after hip fracture-the expected recovery differential (ERD)-that captures the difference between actual recovery and predicted recovery. Starting with biomarkers associated with physical performance, morbidity, mortality, and hip fracture, we evaluated associations with the ERD to identify biomarkers of physical resilience after hip fracture.

In the Baltimore Hip Studies (N = 304) sera, we quantified biomarkers of inflammation (TNFR-I, TNFR-II, sVCAM-1, and IL-6), metabolic and mitochondrial function (non-esterified fatty acids, lactate, ketones, acylcarnitines, free amino acids, and IGF-1), and epigenetic dysregulation (circulating microRNAs). We used principal component analysis, canonical correlation, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression (LASSO) to identify biomarker associations with better-than-expected recovery (greater ERD) after hip fracture.

Participants with greater ERD were more likely to be women and less disabled at baseline. The complete biomarker set explained 37% of the variance in ERD (p < .001) by canonical correlation. LASSO regression identified a biomarker subset that accounted for 27% of the total variance in the ERD and included a metabolic factor (aspartate/asparagine, C22, C5:1, lactate, glutamate/mine), TNFR-I, miR-376a-3p, and miR-16-5p.

We identified a set of biomarkers that explained 27% of the variance in ERD-a measure of physical resilience after hip fracture. These ERD-associated biomarkers may be useful in predicting physical resilience in older adults facing hip fracture and other acute health stressors.