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[Contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019 novel coronavirus based on cluster epidemics of COVID-19 in

Q L Jing1, Y G Li1, M M Ma1

  • 1Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China.

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi = Zhonghua Liuxingbingxue Zazhi
|May 11, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Cluster epidemics of COVID-19 in Guangzhou were highly contagious, primarily spreading within families. Strengthening prevention and control measures is crucial to reduce community transmission of the novel coronavirus.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak necessitated understanding its transmission dynamics.
  • Cluster epidemics, particularly within households, pose significant public health challenges.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the contagiousness and secondary attack rate of 2019-nCoV in Guangzhou cluster epidemics.
  • To provide evidence-based strategies for COVID-19 prevention and control.

Main Methods:

  • Inclusion of all identified 2019-nCoV infected individuals in Guangzhou (confirmed and asymptomatic cases).
  • Classification of cases into imported and local categories.
  • Definition of index cases for cluster epidemics to calculate subsequent infections and evaluate contagiousness and secondary attack rates within a 1-3 day incubation period.

Main Results:

  • A total of 349 cases (339 confirmed, 10 asymptomatic) were reported by February 18, 2020.
  • 68 clusters involved 217 cases; the median subsequent infections per index case was 3 (2 confirmed, 1 asymptomatic).
  • The average contagiousness was 2.18, with a 46.11%-49.56% secondary attack rate in family members, indicating high household transmission.

Conclusions:

  • COVID-19 cluster epidemics in Guangzhou predominantly occurred within families, demonstrating high contagiousness.
  • Targeted family-based interventions are essential for effective COVID-19 control.
  • Strengthening prevention and control measures is critical to mitigate community transmission.

Keywords:
2019 novel coronavirusCOVID-19Cluster epidemicContagiousnessSecondary attack rate

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