How we should respond to the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 outbreak: A German perspective

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health

Background:

• Early COVID-19 response in Germany lacked efficient containment, leading to exponential case growth.
• A national lockdown was implemented to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
• Germany's robust testing capacity and ICU beds aided pandemic management and prevented health system overload.

Purpose of the Study:

• To predict the plateau day for SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths in Germany.
• To analyze the impact of German containment measures on viral spread and peak infection cases.

Main Methods:

• Normalization of daily case numbers to identify outbreak trends.
• Calculation of the plateau day based on normalized infection data.

Main Results:

• The predicted plateau day for new SARS-CoV-2 infections in Germany was April 12, 2020 (day 103 of the year).
• Analysis demonstrated the effect of German containment measures on viral spread and the peak of new cases.

Conclusions:

• Normalized case number curves can predict the cessation of new infections if the epidemic remains stable.
• Reaching the plateau day during lockdown allows for a 2-3 week preparation period for safe unlocking.
• Strict adherence to social distancing, mask-wearing, digital contact tracing, and serosurveillance is crucial for maintaining low infection rates, as exemplified by Asian countries.