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Polarization in America: two possible futures
Gordon Heltzel1, Kristin Laurin1
1University of British Columbia, Canada.
Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences
|May 12, 2020
Summary
American political polarization is a growing concern. Future trajectories remain uncertain, with potential for continued escalation or a peak, influenced by misperceptions and avoidance.
Area of Science:
- Political Science
- Sociology
- American Politics
Background:
- Rising political polarization in America over the last 25 years is a significant concern for democratic functioning.
- Excessive polarization, where groups refuse to consider opposing views, hinders problem-solving and democratic processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore potential future trajectories of American political polarization.
- To analyze the factors that may drive or mitigate polarization.
Main Methods:
- Review of existing theories and evidence on political polarization.
- Analysis of self-reinforcing mechanisms like misperception and avoidance.
- Examination of the concept of polarization as a pendulum swing.
Main Results:
- Two primary future scenarios for polarization are presented: a self-reinforcing upward trajectory or reaching a peak.
- The role of misperception and avoidance as potential drivers of escalating polarization is highlighted.
Conclusions:
- The ultimate direction of political polarization remains indeterminate.
- Addressing misperceptions is identified as a crucial factor in navigating the future of polarization.
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